As 2026 strategic planning kicks off, I’m sure many of you will be evaluating business plans.  To assist you here’s a filter used by Sequioa Capital to separate substance from hype. Before you greenlight any initiative, ask:

1. Who cares? (Is the market big enough to matter?)
2. Who needs it? (Is there real customer pain or is it just novelty?)
3. So what? (What’s the differentiated value vs. alternatives?)

Let’s stress-test this framework against one of the most spectacular product failures in recent memory: the Segway.

In December 2001, the Segway was unveiled on Good Morning America after months of secrecy and speculation. The product was designed on a gyro technology platform that was originally developed for wheelchairs so they could crawl up and down stairs without tipping over.  The tech was adapted for a two wheeled scooter and the Segway was born.  Steve Jobs reportedly said it was “as big a deal as the PC,” and venture capitalist John Doerr predicted it would be bigger than the internet. The company expected to hit $1 billion in sales faster than any company in history.

From the get-go the Segway was climbing a steep hill.  Because the technology was so closely guarded Segway had done no customer research, meaning they didn’t understand what potential customers liked and what they might want changed.   They did no market research which, if they had, would have determined that the Segway was too big for sidewalks (many cities later banned them from sidewalks), and were too heavy and awkward to carry into a building as well as being too bulky to be parked with bicycles.   A $5000 USD price tag meant the Segway was competing with a small, used car as opposed to a bike or a scooter.

Segway forecast sales of 50,000 units in its first year.   Instead, it sold a total of about 30,000 units in its first six years. The “revolution in personal transportation” became a transportation vehicle for mall security guards and tourist groups.

Let’s apply Sequoia’s three questions to see if Segway’s launch disaster might have been avoided.

1. Who cares?  At $5,000, Segway competed with used cars, not bicycles. The addressable market for “people who want to stand while traveling short distances at car prices” was minuscule.
2. Who needs it? This is where Segway failed spectacularly. The company was so obsessed with protecting its technology that it conducted virtually no consumer or market research before launch. They assumed revolutionary tech would create its own demand. It didn’t. The Segway solved no problem that walking, biking, or driving didn’t already solve better and cheaper.
3. So what? The gyroscope technology was genuinely impressive—but impressive engineering isn’t a business case. The “so what” requires a clear answer to: “Why would a customer choose this over every alternative?” Segway never had one.

Cool technology is not a strategy. Customer need is. Before you approve any 2026 initiative, demand clear answers to all three questions. If the team can’t articulate them, the plan isn’t ready.